*74*

Polynomial regression is a technique we can use when the relationship between a predictor variable and a response variable is nonlinear.

This type of regression takes the form:

Y = β_{0} + β_{1}X + β_{2}X^{2} + … + β_{h}X^{h} + ε

where *h* is the “degree” of the polynomial.

This tutorial provides a step-by-step example of how to perform polynomial regression in R.

**Step 1: Create the Data**

For this example we’ll create a dataset that contains the number of hours studied and final exam score for a class of 50 students:

#make this example reproducible set.seed(1) #create dataset df runif(50, 5, 15), score=50) df$score = df$score + df$hours^3/150 + df$hours*runif(50, 1, 2) #view first six rows of data head(data) hours score 1 7.655087 64.30191 2 8.721239 70.65430 3 10.728534 73.66114 4 14.082078 86.14630 5 7.016819 59.81595 6 13.983897 83.60510

**Step 2: Visualize the Data**

Before we fit a regression model to the data, let’s first create a scatterplot to visualize the relationship between hours studied and exam score:

library(ggplot2) ggplot(df, aes(x=hours, y=score)) + geom_point()

We can see that the data exhibits a bit of a quadratic relationship, which indicates that polynomial regression could fit the data better than simple linear regression.

**Step 3: Fit the Polynomial Regression Models**

Next, we’ll fit five different polynomial regression models with degrees *h* = 1…5 and use k-fold cross-validation with k=10 folds to calculate the test MSE for each model:

#randomly shuffle data df.shuffled sample(nrow(df)),] #define number of folds to use for k-fold cross-validation K #define degree of polynomials to fit degree #create k equal-sized folds folds seq(1,nrow(df.shuffled)),breaks=K,labels=FALSE) #create object to hold MSE's of models mse = matrix(data=NA,nrow=K,ncol=degree) #Perform K-fold cross validation for(i in 1:K){ #define training and testing data testIndexes which(folds==i,arr.ind=TRUE) testData #use k-fold cv to evaluate models for (j in 1:degree){ fit.train = lm(score ~ poly(hours,j), data=trainData) fit.test = predict(fit.train, newdata=testData) mse[i,j] = mean((fit.test-testData$score)^2) } } #find MSE for each degree colMeans(mse) [1] 9.802397 8.748666 9.601865 10.592569 13.545547

From the output we can see the test MSE for each model:

- Test MSE with degree h = 1:
**9.80** - Test MSE with degree h = 2:
**8.75** - Test MSE with degree h = 3:
**9.60** - Test MSE with degree h = 4:
**10.59** - Test MSE with degree h = 5:
**13.55**

The model with the lowest test MSE turned out to be the polynomial regression model with degree *h* =2.

This matches our intuition from the original scatterplot: A quadratic regression model fits the data best.

**Step 4: Analyze the Final Model**

Lastly, we can obtain the coefficients of the best performing model:

#fit best model best = lm(score ~ poly(hours,2, raw=T), data=df) #view summary of best model summary(best) Call: lm(formula = score ~ poly(hours, 2, raw = T), data = df) Residuals: Min 1Q Median 3Q Max -5.6589 -2.0770 -0.4599 2.5923 4.5122 Coefficients: Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|) (Intercept) 54.00526 5.52855 9.768 6.78e-13 *** poly(hours, 2, raw = T)1 -0.07904 1.15413 -0.068 0.94569 poly(hours, 2, raw = T)2 0.18596 0.05724 3.249 0.00214 ** --- Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

From the output we can see that the final fitted model is:

Score = 54.00526 – .07904*(hours) + .18596*(hours)^{2}

We can use this equation to estimate the score that a student will receive based on the number of hours they studied.

For example, a student who studies for 10 hours is expected to receive a score of **71.81**:

Score = 54.00526 – .07904*(10) + .18596*(10)^{2} = 71.81

We can also plot the fitted model to see how well it fits the raw data:

ggplot(df, aes(x=hours, y=score)) + geom_point() + stat_smooth(method='lm', formula = y ~ poly(x,2), size = 1) + xlab('Hours Studied') + ylab('Score')

You can find the complete R code used in this example here.